The property boom (not bubble) will continue until the end of 2027, according to Forcadell.

PUBLISHED ON

Noviembre 10, 2025

CATEGORY

Real Estate

The residential market is currently experiencing a boom, although it is nothing like 2007, so the existence of a bubble can be ruled out. This is the clear message that emerges from the latest Real Estate Market Report, Current Situation and Outlook for 2025, presented on Tuesday in Barcelona by Forcadell and the University of Barcelona (UB).

Among the factors that rule out the possibility of a bubble are greater caution on the part of banks and mortgage lending, which is forecast at €85 billion, 50% less in nominal terms than in 2006. Deposits by households and businesses exceed loans granted, confirming a situation of balance in the financial system, coupled with a relaxation in interest rate trends by the European Central Bank (ECB).

During the presentation, given by Ivan Vaqué, executive director of Forcadell, and Gonzalo Bernardos, professor of economics at the University of Barcelona (UB) and director of the UB's Master's Degree in Real Estate Consulting, Management and Promotion, it was estimated that this real estate boom will continue until at least the last quarter of 2027, with a massive shift of young people (under 40) from the rental market to the purchase market. 

The sale of second-hand properties will set a new record for the second consecutive year, reaching 765,000 units. 

The study estimates that in 2026, house prices will increase by around 8% and sales by over 7.5%, while transactions will reach 850,000 units, with 60,000 more homes sold than the previous year, placing it in third place in terms of highest sales in history, behind the 901,574 sold in 2005 and the 955,186 sold in 2006.

The sale of second-hand properties will set a new record for the second consecutive year, reaching 765,000 units. The main drivers of the market will once again be the scarcity and high cost of renting, with rents higher than mortgage payments, high job stability, an increase in real wages, low mortgage interest rates and an increase in bank lending.

What does seem to characterise the market is a sharp increase in the number of homes purchased by people under the age of 40. In these transactions, young people's limited savings will be offset by contributions from their parents. In fact, next year will see the largest transfer of capital from parents to children in the history of our country.

As for the evolution of the rental market, reality prevails and rent caps are not leading to price containment. In Barcelona, their application would imply reductions of more than 25% in many cases, but the market has barely registered any adjustments, as many contracts remain in force or part of the supply is allocated to seasonal rentals.

Landlords face greater risks and lower returns, including the inability to evict vulnerable tenants

The report points out how the supply of rental housing has declined significantly in recent years. Landlords face greater risks and lower returns, including the inability to evict vulnerable tenants and the intention to impose rent controls. At the same time, the government is barely increasing the construction of new homes, with an annual average of only 2,484 units between 2019 and 2024, which contributes to maintaining the shortage in the market.

This study, presented on Tuesday, categorically states that the increase in tourist accommodation (VUT) ‘is not one of the causes of the rise in rents in recent years’. According to the INE, in May 2025 there were 381,037 VUTs in Spain, representing only 1.43% of the total number of homes and 7.01% of the rental stock. This small proportion makes it impossible to attribute a decisive role to them in the increase in the average rental price, which has risen by 94.7% in the last decade.

Tertiary market

According to this study, the Spanish logistics market remains robust, marked by decentralisation towards peripheral areas, where land availability and more competitive costs favour new developments. Intense investment activity and forecasts for the closure of multiple portfolios in the short term confirm capital confidence in this segment.

In the office segment, the increase in relocations with expansion of floor space observed in 2025 could mark a turning point, evidencing a revival in demand for larger spaces and a gradual return to the face-to-face model. Thus, it considers that in Barcelona, the challenge will be to maintain the trend of reduced office availability observed throughout the current financial year, especially in 22@ and the city centre. Meanwhile, in Madrid, the positive cycle is expected to continue, with annual take-up exceeding 500,000 square metres.